Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India’s most valuable company led by Mukesh Ambani, has once again captured investor attention after its recent Annual General Meeting (AGM). From the much-anticipated Jio IPO to bold new energy initiatives and significant oil-to-chemicals (O2C) expansion, Reliance has laid out a roadmap that could potentially push its stock price higher in the coming year.
Although RIL shares came under pressure immediately after the AGM – as most announcements were already priced in by the market – leading brokerages remain bullish on the stock. Analysts believe that the structural strength of Reliance’s consumer businesses, aggressive capex in new energy, and a game-changing Jio IPO could help the company deliver strong shareholder returns. Some projections even suggest a potential 25% upside within the next 12 months.
Reliance AGM Highlights: Growth Drivers in Focus
At the AGM, Mukesh Ambani outlined Reliance’s three-pronged growth vision – strengthening its O2C business, scaling up its digital and retail ventures, and building a massive green energy ecosystem over the next decade.
- Oil-to-Chemicals Expansion: Reliance plans to invest ₹75,000 crore into its O2C segment, targeting both existing and new petrochemical value chains.
- Digital & Retail Growth: Jio Platforms continues to lead India’s telecom sector with rising Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), while Reliance Retail remains a dominant player across categories.
- New Energy Roadmap: RIL aims to match its O2C earnings with profits from green energy by 2032, marking one of the boldest transitions in its history.
Brokerage Views: Why Analysts Are Bullish
1. Nuvama Institutional Equities – 28% Upside Potential
Nuvama has placed a Buy rating on Reliance with a target price of ₹1,733 – suggesting a potential 28% gain from current levels.
According to the brokerage, the long-term digital and retail story remains intact, while the O2C segment is set for “huge expansion.” The most striking part of Reliance’s vision, however, lies in its new energy ambition:
- Green Hydrogen: Targeting 3 MMT per annum capacity, equal to the world’s current capacity.
- Electrolysers: Aiming for 3 GW, which is about half of global capacity.
- Battery Storage: Planning a 40 GWh battery facility, scalable to 100 GWh.
- Renewable Power: Reliance’s renewable power generation could rise to 100 GW, nearly three times India’s projected FY25 renewable capacity.
This transition is expected to deliver massive 25% power cost savings while positioning Reliance as a global clean energy leader.
Nuvama also highlighted that new verticals like Reliance Intelligence (RI) and Reliance Consumer Products (RCPL) could act as future growth engines.
2. Motilal Oswal – Jio IPO Could Unlock Value
Motilal Oswal remains bullish on Reliance, particularly because of the valuation potential of Jio Platforms.
- Jio has been valued at an enterprise value of ₹13.3 lakh crore ($151 billion).
- The equity value attributable to Reliance is estimated at ₹11.9 lakh crore ($135 billion).
- This translates into a per-share contribution of ₹585 for RIL.
With SEBI’s recent push to lower the minimum stake dilution for IPOs, Motilal Oswal expects Jio’s IPO to become the largest in India’s history, raising around ₹30,000 crore.
The brokerage believes that the value unlocked through the IPO will offset any holding company discount concerns.
Additionally, Motilal Oswal projects an annual capex of ₹1.3 lakh crore between FY25 and FY28, largely driven by green energy investments. Despite high spending, Reliance is expected to generate ₹1 lakh crore in free cash flow, allowing debt levels to moderate significantly.
3. JM Financial – RIL’s “Golden Decade” Story Intact
JM Financial has also maintained a Buy rating, with a target price of ₹1,700 – implying around 25% upside from current levels.
The brokerage expects Reliance to post 15–20% EPS growth CAGR over the next 3–5 years, led by both consumer businesses (Jio and Retail) and new energy.
Key highlights include:
- ARPU Growth: Jio’s ARPU expected to rise steadily, driven by industry consolidation and higher data monetization.
- O2C Expansion: Reliance reiterated its ₹75,000 crore O2C investment plan.
- Green Energy: New Energy business could rival O2C profits within 5–7 years.
JM Financial also pointed out Reliance’s earlier commitment (AGM 2022) of more than doubling EBITDA by 2027, from ₹1.25 lakh crore to over ₹2.5 lakh crore. With robust execution, the company remains on track for this ambitious target.
Challenges Ahead: Can RIL Deliver 25% Upside?
Despite the optimism, Reliance faces several challenges:
- Execution Risks: Scaling renewable energy projects to global levels will require flawless execution and regulatory support.
- Capex Pressure: High spending on green energy and O2C could pressure margins in the short term.
- Global Oil Prices: O2C margins remain sensitive to global crude oil and petrochemical cycles.
- IPO Timing: The success of Jio’s IPO will depend on market sentiment at the time of launch.
However, analysts largely agree that RIL’s diversified business model, deep pockets, and proven execution record make it one of the strongest long-term bets in India’s corporate landscape.
Investor Takeaway
While Reliance shares may remain under pressure in the short term due to heavy capex and muted near-term earnings, the long-term growth drivers remain intact.
- Digital & Retail: Structural uptrend with strong ARPU and consumption growth.
- O2C Business: Expansion plans to strengthen core earnings.
- Green Energy: Could transform RIL into a global leader in renewables.
- Jio IPO: A historic value unlock opportunity.
With multiple engines of growth, Reliance has the potential to deliver 25% returns over the next 12 months, according to leading brokerages. For investors with a long-term horizon, RIL continues to be one of the most promising wealth creators in India.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor before making investment decisions.
